Redes sociais podem servir para prever a falência de um negócio

Via Veja

Com base em check-ins feitos online, pesquisadores acertaram quais estabelecimentos faliriam em 6 meses 80% das vezes

Com base em dados relacionados a redes sociais e ao transporte público, pesquisadores liderados pela Universidade de Cambridge, na Inglaterra, conseguiram prever se um novo negócio iria falir em até seis meses. Com uma precisão de 80%, o modelo elaborado pelos cientistas leva em conta principalmente a localização do estabelecimento e a quantidade de pessoas que o visitam para determinar o seu sucesso.

A pesquisa considerou mais de 74 milhões de check-ins feitos na mídia social Foursquare em dez cidades, entre elas Londres, Singapura, Nova York e Paris, e cruzou as informações obtidas com dados de 181 milhões de corridas de táxi em Nova York e Singapura.

Os critérios utilizados foram três: os padrões de visitas que cada região recebia em cada hora do dia, o número de pessoas de outras áreas que visitavam cada região e o bairro em que se localizavam.

O resultado final foi de que, mesmo sem possuir informações relativas, por exemplo, ao nível de satisfação do cliente de cada loja ou sobre a qualidade dos produtos vendidos, a pesquisa foi bem-sucedida em apontar o futuro próximo dos negócios estudados. O acerto sobre se haveria ou não falência se deu em 4 a cada 5 vezes.

Uma importante tendência observada pelo estudo foi a de que estabelecimentos presentes em diversos bairros diferentes tendem a sobreviver por mais tempo. Outro interessante fato registrado é o de que negócios que são populares durante todo o dia, em vez de só em certos momentos, têm menores probabilidades de falir.

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